
By Alvar Mwakyusa
Tanzania is expected to experience varied rainfall during the Masika season from March to May 2026, with wetter conditions in some regions and drier weather in others, the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has said.
TMA Director General and Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Dr Ladislaus Chang’a, said enhanced rainfall activity is likely in April, raising concerns over flooding, crop damage and outbreaks of water- and vector-borne diseases in vulnerable areas.
He urged communities, authorities and sectors to take timely action and follow daily and ten-day forecasts for localized guidance.
The Masika rains mainly affect the country’s bimodal rainfall zones, including the Lake Victoria Basin, Northern Coast, Northeastern Highlands and northern Kigoma. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the Northern Coast, western Lake Victoria Basin—including Kagera and Geita—and northern Kigoma.
These areas could experience periods of excessive soil moisture and localized flooding, which may disrupt farming, damage infrastructure and contaminate water sources.
Normal to below-normal rainfall is forecast for the Northeastern Highlands, covering Arusha, Manyara and Kilimanjaro, and parts of the Lake Victoria Basin such as Mwanza, Shinyanga, Mara and Simiyu.
Reduced river flows and declining reservoir levels may lead to water shortages for domestic use, livestock and irrigation.
The rains are expected to start in late February to early March over the Lake Victoria Basin, early to mid-March along the Northern Coast, and mid-March in the Northeastern Highlands, before ending between late May and early June, depending on location.
Health officials warn that heavy rains could increase malaria, cholera and other water-related diseases, particularly where flooding contaminates water sources and drier areas may also face health challenges linked to unsafe water.
The outlook also highlights possible impacts on agriculture, livestock, transport, energy and water sectors whereas farmers in wetter areas may face waterlogging and crop losses, while drier zones risk reduced yields.
Flooding could disrupt roads, railways and marine transport, and fluctuating water levels may affect hydropower generation and increase water treatment costs.
TMA attributes the seasonal pattern to largely neutral sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, with weak westerly winds from the Congo Basin expected to enhance moisture inflow into parts of the western Lake Victoria Basin later in the season.
Authorities, communities and the private sector are urged to use forecast in planning and preparedness measures, and to rely on official updates issued by TMA.


















